Football Odds Daily

One of the important things about analyzing preseason football picks is the amount of changes that crop up from year to year. This is essential for bettors as many teams have made changes and won’t look the same. We saw this a year ago when Jacksonville Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio totally revamped his offensive philosophy by bringing in pass-happy offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. The Jags were a better team to look at over the total all season, and that included exhibition games.

Sunday’s Hall of Fame game provided a stark contrast in changes. First off, the Colts didn’t change much at all. Tony Dungy is a player’s coach and has a reputation for taking it easy on his veteran players during preseason. He isn’t interested in winning and losing, but keeping starters healthy and getting a good long look at young athletes to develop depth.

The Colts are 2-11 SU/ATS their last 13 preseason games after the Redskins ran away with a late win. The Colts run defense was bludgeoned as they went with the kids, worked on schemes, giving up 156 rushing yards. Indy got long looks at QBs Quinn Gray and Jared Lorenzen, who only recently joined the team, plus rookie running back Mike Hart picking up 53 yards on just four carries.

Mistakes proved costly. Rookie backup center Jamie Richard whistled a shotgun snap over the head of Gray and out of the end zone for a safety, and Kelvin Hayden’s holding penalty nullified T.J. Rushing’s 67-yard punt return for a touchdown. In the closing minutes, Matterral Richardson intercepted a Lorenzen pass and returned it 38 yards for a touchdown. ‘The team that doesn’t beat themselves has the best chance to win,’ Dungy said. It was the fourth consecutive preseason-opening loss for the Colts, and their 13th in their past 15 preseason games overall.

Secondly, the Redskins looked very different from a year ago. Washington hasn’t been known as an explosive offense the last two seasons under Joe Gibbs, ranking 20th and 15th in total offense. However, they have a new coach this season in Jim Zorn: and a different offensive philosophy. Washington was wide-open offensively, throwing off play-action, running during passing situations and looking deep downfield often. Quarterbacks Jason Campbell, Todd Collins and Colt Brennan completed 19-of-22 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns.

The team appeared to have more interest in the game, as if they wanted to win one for the new coach. The main point, though, was that the offense took a more aggressive, attacking approach. That’s something to look for the rest of the preseason. Their approach also was the main reason the game sailed way over the total.

Zorn has maintained a demeanor of cool confidence, despite a lack of head coaching experience, while replacing a legend, Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs. Zorn is Daniel Snyder’s sixth coach since 2000, so there is something to prove, even in August. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Redskins continue to try and put up points in preseason. Whether this translates into September success is unknown. After all, another Redskin coach, Steve Spurrier, dazzled on offense in preseason, as if to make a point, then his offense went bust when the games were for real.

Preseason football picks offers various chances to see coaching staffs implementing new wrinkles on offense and defense. It’s all predicated on personnel, however, and one must need to approach these changes with a careful eye. For instance, six years ago Steve Spurrier brought his Fun-n-Gun offense to the NFL with the Washington Redskins. Spurrier put on a show his first preseason, with trick plays and a wide-open offensive assault. It was impressive, with his teams winning and going over the total often. However, that didn’t hold when the games were played for real. His offenses were largely anemic in the regular season, against first-string defenses and blitzing attacks. I think about this watching the Redskins under first-year coach Jim Zorn. Washington has been impressive on offense with his uptempo, West Coast attack. Zorn likes to keep defenses off balance with his play calling. In three games the offense has tallied 355 yards (156 rushing), 341 yards (155 rushing) and 359 yards (181 rushing), winning all three games. However, I see a bit of Spurrier in this, as well. The Redskins have had offensive line troubles and a lot of injuries. In Saturday’s win over the Jets, running back Ladell Betts didn’t play much because of an injury while RB Clinton Portis was given the night off. The bulk of the yards were racked up by RBs Rock Cartwright and Marcus Mason. I can hear the collective echo of…”Who?” Cartwright is a 7-year veteran, so it’s unlikely the Redskins found a gem of a back everyone else has missed the previous six years. The point is, I like what Zorn is doing with his offense, but don’t make the “Spurrier mistake” of expecting this offense to be just as potent in the regular season, especially on the ground. After all, Washington was 20th and 15th in total offense the last two seasons under Al Saunders, a guy with an excellent reputation for running potent offenses. One thing I did like, though, was the way Zorn has thrown rookie QB Colt Brennan into the fire. Trailing 10-6, Washington took over on its 20-yard line with 2 minutes 4 seconds remaining. Brennan had entered in the third quarter in Washington’s first two preseason games but came in to start the fourth quarter Saturday. That’s because Zorn wanted to evaluate the rookie in a late-game situation with the team either in a hurry-up mode because it trailed or trying to manage the clock with a lead. The kid passed the test. On the drive’s first play, Brennan completed a 37-yard pass to wide receiver Billy McMullen. After a sack, the Redskins went to a no-huddle offense, and Brennan teamed with tight end Jason Goode on a 33-yard touchdown pass over the middle with 1:09 to play. That’s a significant part of preseason – testing the kids. Brennan might be a bit like Kurt Warner, an unknown who surprises in the pro game because of his quick thinking skills developed after playing in a hurry-up offense in college (or in Warner’s case, the Arena League). Speaking of evaluating styles of play, how about the Raiders/Titans game last week? Tennessee ran for 140 yards, Oakland ran for 224. Now this is a good example of what you could expect in the regular season – run first offenses. The Titans have been that way the last two years with young QB Vince Young and limited wideout talent. Last year Tennessee was 5th in rushing, 27th in passing. I wouldn’t expect that to change this season, especially with their RB depth (they took RB Chris Johnson in the first round). Oakland is turning the reigns over to second-year QB JaMarcus Russell and the kid has very little WR talent or speed to work with. You can’t run a wide-open, spread offense if you don’t have the personnel. That’s a mistake the Jets made last season on both sides of the ball. Eric Mangini wants to run a 3-4 defense but hasn’t had the run stuffers up front to really make it work. And on offense, they haven’t had a QB that can throw deep, which is what they prefer under OC Brian Schottenheimer. They’ve felt opposing defenses have cheated, bringing defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage and jamming the run. NY ranked 19th in rushing and 25th in passing in 2007. That’s why they jumped to dump Chad Pennington and bring in Brett Favre. Look for NY to spread the field and for Favre to throw deep (which he will do whether you ask him to or not), as the plan is to have a better running game because they believe there will be larger seams for the RBs. This is the plan, that is. I wonder about Favre’s arm strength at age 38, his propensity to throw into traffic, and the new-look NY offensive line. A team that has looked positively brutal on offense is the Chicago Bears, a team less than two years removed from being NFC Champs. This offensive line hasn’t look better (30th in rushing last season): they had 51 yards rushing Saturday at Seattle. Chicago produced 82 yards, three first downs and no points in 23 plays with Rex Grossman. That was one week after the first team offense got 3 points in the first half against the Chiefs. “This will be my fifth year with this coaching staff. They’ve seen me for four years,” Grossman said. “I think they should know.” Unfortunately, Rex, we ALL know. What was it that former Bears WR Mushim Muhammad said? “Chicago is a place where wide receivers go to die.” Or as General McArthur would add, to “just fade away.” At this point, things don’t look much improved for the Chicago offense in 2008, so that defense had better return to its 2006 form. We’re less than two weeks away from opening kick of the college football picks season. I’ll return to the CFB grids with next week’s update getting us all set up for a great 2008 season.

Handicappers should have good memories, or at least have a full supply of pencils and notebooks handy. Events from earlier in the season as well as past seasons can help find edges against the spread. Five years ago, for instance, when the NFL opened the season, the Bills flattened the Patriots in Week 1 31-0. The fortunes of the teams changed the rest of the way, and in Week 17 the Bills were out of the playoff while the Patriots were 13-2. The teams met in the finale, with the Patriots winning 31-0. Think the players remembered that first meeting?

Preseason football picks offers examples of this, too. A few seasons ago week I had the Giants over the Chiefs in preseason action. One aspect of the game that stood out for me was an incident that took place a year ago in preseason between the opposing coaches.

At the time Herm Edwards was coaching the Jets. And in the preseason of 2005, Edwards had an agreement with NY Giants coach Tom Coughlin to have ‘no rough stuff’ in their inter-squad scrimmage. Then Edwards, for whatever reason, forgot his agreement. The Jets unloaded on their cross-town rivals and it infuriated the Giants coach.

NY Giant players were stunned and brought it up several times that preseason. Word out of New York was that Coughlin hadn’t forgotten it, either. That was a factor in my handicapping. Because picking motivational spots in the preseason is important, largely because they can be difficult to find. Most times, teams just want to go through the motions and stay healthy. Preseason is for examining young talent, figuring out who to keep or cut, and for the starters to work out a little of the rust.

However, you can find spots where coaches are angry with a team’s performance and ask for a superior effort. And, yes, there can even be revenge spots in preseason, such as the one I mentioned between the Giants and Chiefs.

Other times new coaches want to impress their new bosses and fans. The first two games featuring new coaches this preseason went 2-0 SU/ATS. The Redskins beat the Colts by 14 for coach Jim Zorn, while the Ravens upset the Patriots in the debut of John Harbaugh. In fact, Harbaugh said afterward, ‘It counts. There’s the excitement of the players coming up here and getting a victory in this stadium against this team. It was a real thrill to be here.’

Make notes on incidents like this that stand out during a season, even preseason. Maybe a player mouths off at an opposing player, or takes a cheap shot on the field. Or one team humiliates another. Or even a team’s bus gets stuck in traffic and unruly fans pelt the bus and the players with debris, anything like that that can stand out as unusual or motivational down the road.

When the regular season starts, there may be games where a preseason shellacking or fight could play a revenge roll. New Miami QB Chad Pennington will probably be facing his old team, the Jets, twice this season. Think could be an emotional game for some players and fans, particularly in the Big Apple? That is an obvious example, but over the course of a season there are many other examples a good handicapper can find, many of them subtle. Looking for winning spread situations requires one to keep copious notes and to understand that even tiny, seemingly innocuous details can be very important down the road. Because the road to ATS success is paved with tiny details.

The Hall of Fame Game is usually one of the first battles played each NFLX season.

There is so much excitement that surrounds this contest. For football picks investors, it’s the first crack we get at building our bankroll for the upcoming gridiron season. The fans involved enjoy a tremendous weekend with the Induction Ceremony and, of course, the Hall of Fame Game itself. Finally, the two teams that participate get an early start at honing their skills for the upcoming season.

With so much being put into one event, I wondered how each of these teams would do the following week after the emotion an intensity of this special weekend is over. The results I uncovered were quite profitable. Take a look.

Since the start of the 1983 season, Hall of Fame Game teams are a profitable 28-18-4 ATS for 60.9 percent battling in their second Pre-Season contest. Historically, teams with one game under their belt have done extremely well matched up against an opponent running in its first NFLX battle. This supports that theory.

There were a couple of situations where this Pre-Season system really improved. If our “play on” Hall of Fame squad comes priced as a favorite or an underdog of +2.5 or less, this situation tightens up to a beautiful 21-12-1 ATS for 63.6 percent. On Saturday, Washington is priced at -5 over Buffalo and Indianapolis stands as a 4-point dog at Carolina. That means the Redskins are the only side that fits this profitable tightener.

With our 21-12-1 ATS in hand, there is one parameter that can be added to this system that makes it nearly perfect. If our “play on” Hall of Fame Honey enters off a momentum-building double-digit victory, this technical situations zips to a nifty 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS. The Skins fit this awesome set!

Good luck with Washington on Saturday evening and be sure to check back next week for another inside look at Pre-Season handicapping! Thanks…TS

The preseason calls out as the ’squares’ await the September 4th opener between the Giants and the Redskins. Squares, as unsophisticated bettors are often referred to, are the bookmakers of version of Steve Irkel, only with a fat wallet that is ripe for the pickings. Known to shy away from football picks’s version of the grapefruit league, they interpret the practice aspect of the games as a risky wagering proposition.

Astute bettors, or ’sharps’ as they are known, understand that the preseason presents distinct advantages over the regular season when it comes to turning a profit, in large part due to the coaches overall attitude to balancing winning versus entering the regular season void of any serious injuries.

There are exceptions to every rule. Dennis Green during his 1990s hey days with the Vikings was notorious for placing a heavy emphasis on winning, while Super Bowl coaches Marv Levy and Jimmy Johnson were known to ‘mail it in’ during the preseason. Sharps are able to exploit the coaching dynamics of the preseason to their advantage by understanding the factors that play essential roles in determining the outcome of these contests.

Sharp bettors study the depth chart, particularly at QB, as 3rd and 4th stringers routinely see action, particularly in the cases of those coaches who are overly protective of their main signal caller for regular season action. The Saints enter the preseason with the “mobilely” challenged Mark Brunell backing up QB Drew Brees, followed by former Pittsburgh Panther Tyler Palko and undrafted Montana State product Travis Lulay, who managed a season on the bench with the Seahawks.

Coach Sean Peyton has compiled a mediocre preseason record of 4 and 5 in his first 2 seasons as Saints head coach, and it stands to reason that he will not be overly exposing his All Pro QB considering Brees has sustained two devastating injuries during meaningless contests, the first a torn Labrum in his throwing shoulder as he dove for a fumble in a the season finale versus Broncos in 2005, and the second a dislocated elbow in the second series of the 2006 Pro Bowl.

Figure owner Tom Benson not to do much boogeying this preseason, and if he does, it won’t be on the strength of Brees’ performance.

The Browns merit special consideration here as Romeo Crenell is carrying only a trio of QBs into the season, his 3rd stringer being journeyman, Ken Dorsey, who serves as understudy to Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, both of whom promise to wage a spirited battle for the starting call on opening day.

Dorsey’s numbers have been less than stellar since he entered the league in 2001, but due to his experience rates a clear advantage over Erik Ainge, Brett Ratliff, Anthony Wright, and Andre Woodson, 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks for the opposing Jet and Giant teams that the Browns face in the first two weeks of preseason.

In the NFC, the Buccaneers enter the preseason with the monster quartet of Jeff Garcia, Luke McCown, Brian Griese, and Chris Simms, all four who have been starters at one time or another.

Compare that to Dolphin QBs Josh McCown, John Beck, Chad Henne, and the recently signed Quincy Carter and noew Chad Pennington for this preseason. Practice makes perfect but it also makes for profit. Don’t be square. Get in the game!

Frustration and failure can prove excellent motivating factors in sports. We see quality teams get beaten badly all the time, then bounce back the next game with a terrific performance with an easy win. This can also take place with teams that are off disappointing seasons.
It may seem a distant memory now, but the Bears ended the 2005 season with a blowout loss at the Vikings (34-10) then a home loss to the Panthers in the football picks, 29-21. The next season, the Bears were a very motivated team, going 15-3 while winning the NFC. They were on a mission all year.
A year ago in this column I pointed out, “The spotlight is on NY Giants coach Tom Coughlin. He was a cinch to be fired after the team went 2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS in 2006. They were sloppy, undisciplined and fractured after a 6-2 start. There are plenty of big-names with something to prove.” They proved it, all right, rolling to a surprising Super Bowl title. When channeled properly, frustration can be focused into positive energy. Here are some NFL teams that may have something to prove in 2007.

Ravens: From 13-3 and a Super Bowl contender in 2006, the Ravens embarrassed themselves with a disastrous 5-11 SU, 3-13 ATS season. They were sloppy and undisciplined under Brian Billick, who was fired. The list of humiliations was long: A 44-20 home loss to the Colts, totally packing it in, to a 22-16 OT loss to Miami, the Dolphins’ only win.
The same talented defense (6th in the NFL) is back, but a new coaching staff will try to provide stability and discipline. John Harbaugh is the new head coach, the former Philadelphia Eagles secondary coach. The offense adds 6-foot-6 rookie QB Joe Flacco (Delaware) with the No. 18 overall pick along with new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Note that Baltimore is 28-5 SU/20-11-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2003.

Panthers: Carolina was expected to be very good, but injuries decimated their 2007 season. QB Jake Delhomme was having a great season with 8 TDs, 1 pick before being lost, with David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and undrafted rookie QB Matt Moore all seeing time behind center.
This is the second-year with zone blocking under OC Jeff Davidson, and the offense adds RB Jonathon Stewart (Oregon), taken with the 13th overall pick and Utah tackle Jeff Otah with the No. 19 pick to upgrade the line. The passing game still has do-it-all WR Steve Smith (1,002 yards). Did you know that Panthers bark loudly as a dog? Carolina is 24-10 ATS its last 34 games as an underdog.

Bears: Lovie Smith is under the gun, going from NFC Champs to 7-9 last season. Trading away RB Thomas Jones was as big a disaster as thinking RB Cedric Benson was ready to carry the load. Now Benson is gone, cut loose, so rookie RB Joseph Forte (Tulane) steps in. He’s a power back who excelled in college under Coach Bob Toledo.
Unfortunately, erratic QB Rex Grossman is still behind center and they revamped the receiving corps with a lot of unproven players. A defense that was banged up with injuries is going to have to lead the way if the Bears want to get back to the football picks. Chicago is 19-8 SU, 16-11 ATS at home the last three years.

Saints: New Orleans might be at the top of the list of NFC teams that underachieved, after reaching the NFC Championship game the previous season. The key on offense is to stay healthy, as they are so much better when RB Deuce McAllister (knee injury) carries the ball while RB Reggie Bush is used as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Bush averaged just 3.7 ypc.
Just as big a concern is improving a defense that ranked 26th overall and struggled badly in the secondary, ranking 30th against the pass. They moved up in the draft to take USC nose tackle Sedrick Ellis with the 7th pick, along with DT DeMario Pressley (5th round, NC State) to beef up the D-line. CB Tracy Porter (Indians, second round) was plucked to improve this terrible secondary. New Orleans is 19-11 over the total its last 30 games.

Seahawks: Despite a playoff appearance, it was an unfulfilling season for the Seahawks, failing to step up against good teams and squeaking by too many bad teams. The final indignity was blowing a 14-0 lead at Green Bay in the football picks in a 42-20 defeat. Mike Holmgren will coach the 2008 season and then retire, with Jim Mora, Jr., taking over in 2009.
Holmgren prefers a balanced offense, but they let RB Shaun Alexander walk. They might continue the pass-first attack they used late last season behind QB Matt Hasselbeck (28 TDs, 12 INTs). Seattle is 23-4 SU, 18-8 ATS at home the last three years. Win one for Mike?

Chicago Bears fans are biting their fingernails.

Looking ahead to August, those fans don’t have a good feeling about whether the 2008 version of Chicago’s storied NFL franchise will resemble the 2006 Super Bowl team or the ramshackle 2007 version that lost nine games.

And there are plenty of reasons to support those worries or fears.

The 2006 team reached the Super Bowl (a loss to the Colts) with a strong running game, an incredible game-changing defense, and plenty of smoke and mirrors. Head coach Lovie Smith was hailed two seasons ago as a saviour. Last season was the usual post; Super Bowl honeymoon. But he knows his own reputation; and that of the Bears is on the line in 2008.

Reality set back in 2007 when the running game almost vanished (the Bears averaged only 83.1 yards rushing, 30th in the league). And when Chicago needed it most, the once-vaunted defense did its own disappearing act. The Bears allowed 21.8 points a gam: 16th in the league, and gave up 354.7 yards each outing: a miserable 28th in the NFL.

There are more question marks. Rex Grossman, sometimes brilliant, sometimes miserable, appears to be back at quarterback. Grossman was barely the Bears second-best signal-caller a year ago, completing 122 of 225 passes for 1,411 yards but only four touchdowns.

Brian Griese, meanwhile, no longer a Bear, was 161 of 262 last fall for 1,803 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Griese is gone, Grossman is healthy, and Kyle Orton wants a chance of his own. The Bears insist there is no quarterback controversy and everyone will get a look, but everyone also knows Grossman will be under center for the start of the season.

Who the Bears quarterbacks throw to is another issue. Veteran Muhsin Muhammad was cut in February and speedy Bernard Berrian was lost via free agency. Those two receivers combined for 110 catches, 1,518 yards and eight touchdowns in 2007. The leading returning receiver is a running back, Adrian Peterson.

Yet the Bears do return tight end Desmond Clark, second-year receiver Greg Olsen and even have plans to use the electric Devin Hester more often on the offensive side of the ball. Hester, many feel, could have the same impact at wide receiver as has Carolina’s speedy Steve Smith.

Hester’s specialty, of course is in the return game. He averaged 15.5 yards per punt return a season ago, and ran four of them back for touchdowns. He is the most feared kickoff returner in the NFL.

The Bears offensive line has some holes and has to protect the quarterback, especially if the Chicago running game does not get rejuvenated. Center Olin Kruetz and tackle John Tait are two linemen that would be welcome on any NFL roster.

Cedrick Benson, in and out of trouble with the law all offseason, has been cut. Though he only gained 674 yards last season, there are still big shoes to fill and have been ever since the Bears got rid of Thomas Jones two years ago.

Second-round selection Matt Forte has been impressive, even to grizzled Bear veterans, but it’s tough to put a lot of stock into a running back still waiting for his first professional carry. The versatile Peterson, who ran for 510 yards and added another 420 receiving yards, could continue to develop into a first-rate back.

If the Bears are to get back to being a dominant defensive team, it likely will start with linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Briggs recently was signed to a lengthy contract, while Urlacher and the Bears have been talking about modifying his contract. Urlacher and Briggs were the two leading tacklers a year ago, posting 123 and 102 stops respectively.

The return of healthy Mike Brown at safety should help the Bears defense, too.

One strong point for Chicago is kicker Robbie Gould, who was perfect on 33 PATs and was 31 of 36 in field goals. Also helping the special teams is veteran puter Brad Maynard, who averaged 4.18 on 88 punts last season.

Certainly playing in the NFC North won’t hurt the Bears. With Minnesota, Green Bay (likely minus Brett Favre) and Detroit the primary opposition, fear doesn’t really fit into the equation. Chicago doesn’t have to play in a division with teams like Indianapolis or New England.

But speaking of Indianapolis, the Bears will open the 2008 campaign at Indianapolis when the Colts dedicate their new NFL (Lucas Oil) stadium. Chicago will need to be ready, and fast.

It seems like foot and mouth disease has been the subject of a lot of focus for Super Bowl 42: The foot of QB Tom Brady and the big mouths of some of the Giants. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is always hush-hush about injuries, even minor ones. His thinking is not to let the opposition know anything, no matter how minute. He would rather force the other team to prepare for every player, rather than let the opponent know who’s in and who’s out. Yes, it’s a bit Nixonian in its secrecy, but Belichick is a guy who looks for every possible way to gain an edge on an opponent and the injury list is one.

As I see it, the problem with Brady’s foot is no problem at all. He was seen limping around outside his Boston home last week and videotaped wearing a protective boot. However, it was so minor he played the entire AFC Championship game with no mobility problems. It wasn’t until after the game that he wore the boot. This week Brady said, “It’s feeling good. I’ll be ready to go.”

There’s no reason to doubt him or, more importantly, to factor a Brady foot injury into your handicapping for the big game. Brady has admitted over the years that he’s a fast healer. He never misses games. Back in January of 2002 he was knocked out of the AFC Championship game with a high ankle sprain in the second quarter. QB Drew Bledsoe had to finish the game, leading New England to a 24-17 win at Pittsburgh.

That week there was all kinds of speculation as to who would quarterback the Pats. In fact, because of the terrorist attacks the previous September, that NFL season had only one week to prepare for the Super Bowl, not the usual two weeks like this one. Brady still was able to play and had no problems with his mobility, even winning MVP as the Pats upset the Rams 20-17. His ankle injury was far worse then and he only had one week to get ready between games. The bottom line: Brady should be fine for this game.

From foot to mouth, the trash talking that’s been going on has been even more interesting. Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora called out Patriots left tackle Matt Light for what he felt were questionable tactics in the Patriots’ 38-35 victory Dec. 29 in Week 17. “Now we are really going to go at it this time,” Umenyiora said.

Giants WR Plaxico Burress alleged the Patriots were delivering low blows, while Patriots safety Rodney Harrison fired back that Burress had targeted his knees. The smashmouth battle of words continues to get chippier. Pats DE Richard Seymour said there was only one way to deal with all the barking from the other team: “For us, we have to put our blinders on. We can’t control what anyone else says or does. The only thing we can do is control the way we handle the situation and look forward.”

Throw in the fact that Pats nose tackle Vince Wilfork stuck his finger in the eye of Bradon Jacobs, for which he was fined $15,000 for unsportsmanlike behavior, and it’s clear these teams don’t like each other. But talk is cheap, you have to get it done on the field. The Patriots know all about this.

Six years ago the some Steelers admitted they already had their bags packed for the Super Bowl when they met New England in the AFC Championship game. Three years ago Eagles’ WR Freddie Mitchell talked all week about how he was going to have a big game tearing up the Pats secondary. Mitchell was invisible, with one catch for 11 yards as the Eagles lost, 24-21.

Two months ago a Steeler defensive back guaranteed a win over the Patriots. Final score: New England 34, Pittsburgh 13. A few weeks ago San Diego defensive end Igor Olshansky said, “Who? New England? Seriously, I mean, they’re more worried than we are, I promise you. Believe me. They know what’s up.” Final score: New England 21, San Diego 12. Again, talk is cheap — and it can provide motivation not for the player’s team but the opponent!

It was four years ago that the Patriots beat the Colts, 24-14, in the AFC Championship game. Colts GM Bill Polian felt the Pats defensive backs were mugging his great wide receivers, so he took it up with the rules committee in the offseason. They decided to heavily enforce the 5-yard rule, a boon to passing offenses.

It’s ironic that since then, the Colts have slowly gotten better defensively, while the Patriots have the devastating passing offense. It’s probably no coincidence that Bill Belichick has focused more on the offense in the NFL draft the last four years, as well. The bottom line is that it’s more of an offensive driven league now. The “over” went 3-1 in the playoff this past weekend, and is 5-3 thus far in the postseason.

Of the remaining playoff teams the Chargers are 10-7 over the total, the Patriots are 12-5 over, and the Packers are 12-5 over. Only the Giants (10-8 under) have more unders. Combined these teams are 42-27 over the total for the season.

It still comes to quarterback play in the NFL, but a pair of other factors have become almost as important: Pass rush and secondary play. With defensive backs limited in their ability to play physical with receivers, it’s essential to have cornerbacks and safeties with speed and good cover skills. In a sense, the old adage of stopping the run first has taken a back seat to pass defense, or at least is on a more level playing field.

The other factor is a pass rush. If your team can’t acquire a talent like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, as most can’t, then the next best thing is to accumulate a pass rush that can get after opposing QBs to rattle them. DE Aaron Kampman (12 sacks) of the Packers has had a great season, while the NY Giants are in the NFC title game after leading the league in sacks.

The Giants were able to upset the Cowboys with strong defensive play up front despite a ton of injuries in the secondary. The defensive backfield played without a starting cornerback (Sam Madison) and its nickel back (Kevin Dockery), then lost another corner (rookie Aaron Ross) in the third quarter to a dislocated shoulder. A rookie corner, Geoffrey Pope, made his NFL debut after he was signed off the practice squad last week. Ross vowed to be on the field Sunday when the Giants face the Packers in the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field. “It kept popping out, but I’ll be out there. As long as it’s not broke I’ll be out there,” Ross said. “It was painful, but it’s the football picks.”

While New York is banged up, the Packers are the picture of health. “This is the healthiest we’ve been all year,” Mike McCarthy said. “To come out of the game with zero significant injuries is an extreme positive, and to be going into the NFC championship as healthy as you’ve been, really since I’ve been here, is what we were trying to accomplish, and we got that done.”

Both championship games are going to be played outdoors in cold weather. For the NFC Title game in Green Bay, the temperature is supposed to dip to a high of 7 Sunday! The game starts at 5:30 p.m., so the field won’t be warmed up by the sun.

In the AFC, New England will be hosting the AFC Title game again versus San Diego. Like the Packers, the Patriots have enjoyed excellent health all season, losing only one starter (LB Roosevelt Colvin). But the Chargers suffered a rash of key injuries Sunday, losing QB Philip Rivers (right knee), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (bruised knee) while TE Antonio Gates wasn’t a factor, playing on a dislocated toe suffered against Tennessee in the playoff opener.

The Chargers are on runs of 12-2 SU/ATS and 8-0 SU/ATS, but the Patriots are 17-0 and haven’t lost since last January. The Pats crushed the Chargers, 38-14, in Week 2, but San Diego has changed, with a much more aggressive defense, blitzing often under DC Ted Cottrell. In the last 8 games (all wins) the Chargers have allowed 20 points or more only once (Sunday to the Colts, 24).

The Pats have yet to lose, but they have looked vulnerable on defense the second half of the season. The secondary has been lit up by the Eagles, Ravens, Giants and Jaguars in games decided by 3, 3, 3 and 11 points. They haven’t been a great tackling team, something to keep an eye on this weekend against the Chargers.

The Patriots had a terrible travel schedule last January, flying 3,000 miles to San Diego, then flying to Indianapolis the next week. They certainly looked out of gas in their AFC Championship loss at the Colts. Now the shoe is on the other foot. The Chargers had to fly to Indy, fly home, and now fly 3,000 miles to New England for a second straight road game. We will see if that has any effect on the Chargers, particularly in the second half. It’s not only the survival of the best, but also of the fittest.

Let’s show some sympathy for the Packers. After all, the story line was there: Veteran Brett Favre leading the youngest team in the NFL into the Super Bowl. However, you have to get it done on the field, not in a Hollywood script. The Packers had never lost a playoff at home in their first eight decades of existence, but have now been toppled three times in the last six years. Ouch. They lost at home to Atlanta in 2002, to Minnesota in 2004 and then Sunday to the NY Giants, 23-20 in OT.

Before we move on to the Patriots/Giants Super Bowl battle, looking back at the Conference Championship tilts provide some insight into how to win. Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Joe Philbin’s plan was to exploit mismatches in the NY secondary and throw despite the subzero temperatures.

A huge weakness was the lack of a running game to set up play action. The Giants shut down hot running back Ryan Grant by keeping someone on the backside so Grant had no cutback lanes, as well as blitzing to clog up the line of scrimmage. The Packers came up big on a play-action pass that sucked in the linebackers and resulted in Donald Driver scoring a 90-yard touchdown. But after that they ran just five times in their next 19 plays, giving the Giants little reason to bite on play action. The Packers wound up converting just one of 10 third downs after ranking 8th during the season.

On defense, the Packers’ two starting cornerbacks, Al Harris and Charles Woodson, would have their backs to the play while playing man-to-man coverage. So NY QB Eli Manning underthrew passes, knowing WRs Ami Toomer and Plaxico Burress would come back for the ball with the Green Bay defensive backs not watching the QB. The Packers never backed off their bump coverage to take away those passes.

Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride came up with a brilliant game plan for combating the Packers’ stubborn man-to-man defense. He had Manning come to the line of scrimmage, read the coverage and then signal to his receivers whether he was going to throw the back-shoulder route. Burress, at 6 feet 5 inches, continually beat Harris with fades, comebacks and back-shoulder routes, piling up 154 yards in 11 catches. WR Amani Toomer contributed four catches for 42 yards, mostly against Woodson.

Green Bay defensive coordinator Bob Sanders could have ordered his cornerbacks to play off the receivers in a soft zone, but that never was a consideration. “You play basically one way all year, it’s like you don’t get to the ninth inning and change,” CB Charles Woodson said. I would disagree, Charlie. Winning football picks is about flexibility and adjustments. One can’t have a game plan for EVERYTHING in practice, because different things will pop up during the game. A good coaching staff is able to identify those surprises and make adjustments at halftime or during the game.

A case in point is the AFC Championship game. The Chargers athletic defense, combined with the cold, windy conditions, essentially took away the Patriots top ranked passing attack. Tom Brady threw three picks after throwing 8 in 17 previous games. So what did the Pats do in the second half, leading just 14-12? They adjusted, bringing in two and three tight end sets and running the ball often. The running game was devastating down the stretch. San Diego punted with just over nine minutes left, and their offense never touched the ball again.

Early in the game, the Pats went with their standard spread package in hopes of creating mismatches with Charger linebackers as they did in their Week 2 meeting, a 38-14 rout. But after halftime, when it became apparent that the outside receivers weren’t getting off press coverage, they changed. RB Laurence Maroney rumbled for 106 second-half yards. If knocking your head against the wall isnit bringing down the house, try a different approach.

Despite the impressive showing in Green Bay, this Giants’ secondary is vulnerable at cornerback with aging R.W. McQuarters and Sam Madison. They contained the Packers second-ranked passing attack, but have an even tougher test with New England’s top-ranked passing unit.

It’s clear what the first half game plans will be. Manning directed a 14-play, 71-yard drive for an opening field goal against the Packers. That drive is indicative of their offensive style: ball control. They have excellent wideouts and a nice one-two RB punch of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, who combined for 130 yards in 37 carries in the NFC title game. They will look to do the same to keep the football picks away from the Patriots offense (though in their Week 17 meeting the Giants had just 79 yards rushing, despite holding a double-digit second half lead).

New England will do the opposite, coming out with 4 WR-sets early, likely even a hurry-up offense to attack the Giants secondary. Brady torched the Giants on December 29 (32-of-42 passing, 356 yards, 2 TDs and no picks), and this game will be in much warmer, nicer weather in Arizona. The Pats won 38-35, but the Giants got the cover. This is the first Super Bowl for Tom Coughlin, the fourth in the last seven years for Belichick and Brady. Let the big game begin!